periodic economic crashes
during my daily financial web surfing, i came upon an interesting theory about
The 40-Year Crash Cycle (via permabear
fiend's SuperBear page). first describing the prior 40yr cycle--the crash of 1929 led to the great depression while the removal of the gold standard/OPEC oil embargo led to the stagflation of the late 1970's, the author attempts to point to the causes of the next crash scheduled for ~2010.
the argument starts off alright pointing to the normal biz cycle and the post election year hangover [i don't get the end of decade thing though]. it continues with the notion of baby boomers "shifting their economic behavior from spending to saving" (although i
disagree since the boomers gave themselves enough perks that they'll be able to spend more freely than prior generations). the potential '
peak oil' crisis mentioned looms as the most likely external shock to spur a crash.
however, the interesting premise with decent if debatable support quickly devolves as politics is thrown into the mix. nearly every liberal bugaboo is thrown into the mix as a cause for economic doom: iraq,
bankruptcy reform, deficits, the weak dollar,
greenspan...
the author veers wildly off economics by offering his advice on how the democrats should
capitalize on the dynamic. however instead of an agenda or strategy to avoid economic doom, he suggests they "begin speaking a language". way to be proactive. at least when the then-minority Republicans came up with an agenda (whether you agreed with it or not) through the
contract with america]
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